Then, informed by island biogeographic theory, the researchers scoured the rings for 'city islands' - or distinctly separate settlements of considerable size. 'The farther bin Laden moves from his last reported location into the more secular parts of Pakistan or into India, the greater the probability that he will be in an area with a different cultural composition, thereby increasing the probability of his being captured or eliminated,' Gillespie said. Inspired by distance-decay theory, the seven-member team started by drawing concentric circles around Tora Bora on a satellite map of the area at a distance of 10 kilometers - or 6.1 miles - apart. The second, island biogeographic theory, holds that large and close islands have larger immigration rates and will support more species than smaller, more isolated islands. The first, known as distance-decay theory, holds that as one travels farther away from a precise location with a specific composition of species - or, in this case, a specific composition of cultural and physical factors -the probability of finding spots with that same specific composition decreases exponentially. The UCLA findings rely on two principles used in geography to predict the distribution of wildlife, primarily for the purposes of designing approaches to conservation. forces attacked the caves the following month. In an unsuccessful attempt to capture bin Laden, U.S. One and a half months after the coordinated attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon claimed the lives of more than 3,000 people, a walkie-talkie radio broadcast placed bin Laden in Tora Bora, a cave complex in eastern Afghanistan. intelligence sources, which have closely guarded the details of any efforts to locate him. The findings are based on the last information on bin Laden's whereabouts to be made public by U.S.

versus in Big Bear,' he added, referring to a mountain resort town 90 miles east of Los Angeles. 'It's the difference between looking for someone in L.A. 'If bin Laden were to move to Peshawar, which would become an option if the Taliban were in control there, the search would become much more complicated,' Gillespie said. News reports have warned of that possibility since last summer. They warn that if bin Laden indeed remains to this day in the tiny city of Parachinar, or even elsewhere in the relatively thinly populated tribal area of Kurram, he may move to the city of Peshawar (population 1.4 million) in the neighboring tribal area of North-West Frontier Province if Peshawar falls to the Taliban. investigate - but not bomb - the three buildings. 'The methods are repeatable and could easily be updated with new information obtained by the U.S.

Agnew, study co-author and UCLA geography professor. 'We believe our work represents the first scientific approach to establishing bin Laden's current location,' said John A. Meanwhile, dramatic improvements in remote-sensing imagery have improved the odds of civilians doing so. has not bombed with its unmanned Predators.'Дespite keen interest in the terrorist recluse and a $25 million reward for information leading to his capture, academics have shied away from getting involved in the quest to find him, the researchers contend. 'It is still the safest tribal area and city in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of northwest Pakistan and one of the only tribal areas that the U.S. Gillespie, the study's lead author and an associate professor of geography at UCLA. 'If he's still alive, he honestly could be sitting there right now,' said Thomas W. in one of three buildings in the northwest Pakistan town of Parachinar, in the Kurram tribal region near the border with Afghanistan.

In a new study published online today by the MIT International Review, the geographers report that simple facts, publicly available satellite imagery and fundamental principles of geography place the mastermind behind the Sept.

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